求高手翻译,毕业论文

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Conclusions: What can be achieved? It is undoubtedly possible, given a well planned programme of traffic counts,with an adequate screenline and control sites, and a serendipidous absence of confounding exogenous influences, to identify any increased traffic on the scheme link and to determine what proportion of this is due to rescheduling and rerouting. Such a program need not cost more than a few tens of thousands of pounds and should achieve a precision of around _+4% with 95% confidence depending on the timing of the surveys. Greater precision should become possible as our knowledge of the underlying variability in flow data improves.??Life gets much more difficult if one wants to distinguish b广告een the components of induced traffic. Change of mode could, in theory, be identified fairly straightforwardly but when the difficulty of obtaining reliable patronage data and the probability that other factors (such as fares changes or service reorganisations) will he affected demand over the same period, is combined with the small effect expected, the prospects of achieving reliable results are not very encouraging. We he seen how, with a programme of counts enhanced by carefully targeted interviews, it may be possible to distinguish b广告een redistribution and increased frequency but this can only be achieved at considerable cost and is very subject to exogenous influences. It is the current author's opinion that, where the possibility exists of land use effects, it is likely to be impossible ever to establish adequate control studies and hence impossible to distinguish b广告een the effects of the scheme itself and those of other influences. Even when a statistically significant effect can be established,the fact that individual transport schemes are rarely introduced in isolation from other measures and initiatives, it is likely to make the attribution of cause difficult or impossible. It is important that adequate surveys be conducted and objectively reported because, if there is room to doubt the findings, it is clear that there are those on either side of the debate who will be happy to do so. We he suggested that it should be possible to produce persuasive evidence as to the existence or otherwise of increases in demand which are not simply due to rerouting but we he concluded that the identification of the separate components of this extra traffic will be very difficult. If the term "induced traffic is to be reserved for situations where there has been an increase in trip frequency, it follows that statistically robust evidence of induced traffic will rarely, if ever, be achievable from surveys and it is unlikely that such evidence as is produced will persuade the determined sceptics.
2013-10-07 225阅读
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结论:能够实现什么?
如果进行一项计划良好的交通统计程序并配备足够的屏障线和控制站,在没有混淆外源性影响的情况下,毫无疑问可以确定方案链接上的任何增加的交通量,并确定其中多少是由于重新安排和重新路线。这样的计划不需要花费超过几万英镑,应该可以达到+_4%的精度和95%的置信度,具体取决于调查的时间。随着我们对流量数据基础变异性的了解的提高,应该能够实现更高的精度。但是,如果想要区分诱导交通的组成部分,则情况会变得更加困难。

理论上可以相当轻松地确定模式的改变,但是当考虑到获取可靠客流数据的困难和其他因素(例如票价变化或服务重组)可能影响同一时期的需求时,以及预期效果较小,实现可靠结果的前景不是非常令人鼓舞。我们已经看到,通过增强定点计数计划并进行精确定位的采访计划,可以区分再分配和增加频率,但是这只能以巨大的成本为代价实现,并且非常容易受到外源性影响的影响。在作者看来,如果存在土地使用效应的可能性,则很可能无法建立足够的控制研究,因此无法区分方案本身和其他影响之间的差异。即使可以确定存在统计学意义的影响,事实上个别运输方案很少是独立于其他措施和倡议而引入的,这很可能使因果关系的归因变得困难或不可能。

因此,进行充分的调查并客观地报告非常重要。
2023-05-26
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